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Real-time tracking of self-reported symptoms to predict potential COVID-19

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Cristina Menni, Ana M Valdes, Maxim B Freidin, Carole H Sudre, Long H Nguyen, David A Drew, Sajaysurya Ganesh, Thomas Varsavsky, M Jorge Cardoso, Julia S El-Sayed Moustafa, Alessia Visconti, Pirro Hysi, Ruth C E Bowyer, Massimo Mangino, Mario Falchi, Jonathan Wolf, Sebastien Ourselin, Andrew T Chan, Claire J Steves, Tim D Spector

Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Medicine
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 11 May 2020

King's Authors


A total of 2,618,862 participants reported their potential symptoms of COVID-19 on a smartphone-based app. Among the 18,401 who had undergone a SARS-CoV-2 test, the proportion of participants who reported loss of smell and taste was higher in those with a positive test result (4,668 of 7,178 individuals; 65.03%) than in those with a negative test result (2,436 of 11,223 participants; 21.71%) (odds ratio = 6.74; 95% confidence interval = 6.31-7.21). A model combining symptoms to predict probable infection was applied to the data from all app users who reported symptoms (805,753) and predicted that 140,312 (17.42%) participants are likely to have COVID-19.

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