Recidivism rates among online child sexual exploitation material offenders: systematic review and meta-analyses

TY - JOUR

T1 - Recidivism rates among online child sexual exploitation material offenders

T2 - systematic review and meta-analyses

AU - Clark, Amelia

AU - Coles, Christabel

AU - Lankester, Madison

AU - Fernandes, Denise

AU - Blackwood, Nigel

AU - Cavenham, Jim

AU - Dickson, Hannah

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

PY - 2025/12/4

Y1 - 2025/12/4

N2 - Forensic and legal practitioners benefit from having an empirically derived estimate of the risk that men who access online child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM) will go on to commit further sexual offences. Given the increase in the distribution and use of such materials, the authors sought to derive an estimate, drawing on studies published up to the beginning of 2025. We searched databases that investigated recidivism rates among those convicted of at least one CSEM offence. Four random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to derive the pooled prevalence rates of (1) any sexual re-offending, (2) contact sexual re-offending, (3) CSEM re-offending and (4) violent re-offending. We identified 21 studies of 15,077 individuals. Meta-analyses revealed that, in those convicted of at least one online CSEM offence, 3.41% committed any sexual re-offence, 0.66% committed a contact sexual re-offence, 3.05% committed an online CSEM re-offence and 1.12% committed a violent re-offence over an average follow-up time of approximately 4 years. High heterogeneity was detected across all analyses. Findings indicate low recidivism rates despite the increased availability of such materials online. The use of official conviction data alone is likely to underestimate re-offending rates. Nonetheless, these findings can critically inform risk assessments and sentencing practices in this population.

AB - Forensic and legal practitioners benefit from having an empirically derived estimate of the risk that men who access online child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM) will go on to commit further sexual offences. Given the increase in the distribution and use of such materials, the authors sought to derive an estimate, drawing on studies published up to the beginning of 2025. We searched databases that investigated recidivism rates among those convicted of at least one CSEM offence. Four random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to derive the pooled prevalence rates of (1) any sexual re-offending, (2) contact sexual re-offending, (3) CSEM re-offending and (4) violent re-offending. We identified 21 studies of 15,077 individuals. Meta-analyses revealed that, in those convicted of at least one online CSEM offence, 3.41% committed any sexual re-offence, 0.66% committed a contact sexual re-offence, 3.05% committed an online CSEM re-offence and 1.12% committed a violent re-offence over an average follow-up time of approximately 4 years. High heterogeneity was detected across all analyses. Findings indicate low recidivism rates despite the increased availability of such materials online. The use of official conviction data alone is likely to underestimate re-offending rates. Nonetheless, these findings can critically inform risk assessments and sentencing practices in this population.

KW - child pornography

KW - online sexual offenders

KW - Reoffending

KW - risk assessment

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105025374561

U2 - 10.1080/14789949.2025.2603236

DO - 10.1080/14789949.2025.2603236

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105025374561

SN - 1478-9949

JO - Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology

JF - Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology

ER -