Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

Hayley Holt; Mohammad Talaei; Matthew Greenig; Dominik Zenner; Jane Symons; Clare Relton; Katherine S. Young; Molly R. Davies; Katherine N. Thompson; Jed Ashman; Sultan Saeed Rajpoot; Ahmed Ali Kayyale; Sarah El Rifai; Philippa J. Lloyd; David Jolliffe; Olivia Timmis; Sarah Finer; Stamatina Iliodromiti; Alec Miners; Nicholas S. Hopkinson; Bodrul Alam; Graham Lloyd-Jones; Thomas Dietrich; Iain Chapple; Paul E. Pfeffer; David McCoy; Gwyneth Davies; Ronan A. Lyons; Christopher Griffiths; Frank Kee; Aziz Sheikh; Gerome Breen; Seif O. Shaheen; Adrian R. Martineau

doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

Hayley Holt, Mohammad Talaei, Matthew Greenig, Dominik Zenner, Jane Symons, Clare Relton, Katherine S. Young, Molly R. Davies, Katherine N. Thompson, Jed Ashman, Sultan Saeed Rajpoot, Ahmed Ali Kayyale, Sarah El Rifai, Philippa J. Lloyd, David Jolliffe, Olivia Timmis, Sarah Finer, Stamatina Iliodromiti, Alec Miners, Nicholas S. HopkinsonBodrul Alam, Graham Lloyd-Jones, Thomas Dietrich, Iain Chapple, Paul E. Pfeffer, David McCoy, Gwyneth Davies, Ronan A. Lyons, Christopher Griffiths, Frank Kee, Aziz Sheikh, Gerome Breen, Seif O. Shaheen, Adrian R. Martineau

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. METHODS: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. RESULTS: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. CONCLUSIONS: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	900-912
Number of pages	13
Journal	Thorax
Volume	77
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2022

Keywords

allergic lung disease
asthma epidemiology
clinical epidemiology
COVID-19

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

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Holt, H., Talaei, M., Greenig, M., Zenner, D., Symons, J., Relton, C., Young, K. S., Davies, M. R., Thompson, K. N., Ashman, J., Rajpoot, S. S., Kayyale, A. A., El Rifai, S., Lloyd, P. J., Jolliffe, D., Timmis, O., Finer, S., Iliodromiti, S., Miners, A., ... Martineau, A. R. (2022). Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK). Thorax, 77(9), 900-912. https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

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title = "Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. METHODS: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. RESULTS: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. CONCLUSIONS: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).",

keywords = "allergic lung disease, asthma epidemiology, clinical epidemiology, COVID-19",

author = "Hayley Holt and Mohammad Talaei and Matthew Greenig and Dominik Zenner and Jane Symons and Clare Relton and Young, {Katherine S.} and Davies, {Molly R.} and Thompson, {Katherine N.} and Jed Ashman and Rajpoot, {Sultan Saeed} and Kayyale, {Ahmed Ali} and {El Rifai}, Sarah and Lloyd, {Philippa J.} and David Jolliffe and Olivia Timmis and Sarah Finer and Stamatina Iliodromiti and Alec Miners and Hopkinson, {Nicholas S.} and Bodrul Alam and Graham Lloyd-Jones and Thomas Dietrich and Iain Chapple and Pfeffer, {Paul E.} and David McCoy and Gwyneth Davies and Lyons, {Ronan A.} and Christopher Griffiths and Frank Kee and Aziz Sheikh and Gerome Breen and Shaheen, {Seif O.} and Martineau, {Adrian R.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.",

year = "2022",

month = sep,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487",

language = "English",

volume = "77",

pages = "900--912",

journal = "Thorax",

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Holt, H, Talaei, M, Greenig, M, Zenner, D, Symons, J, Relton, C, Young, KS , Davies, MR , Thompson, KN, Ashman, J, Rajpoot, SS, Kayyale, AA, El Rifai, S, Lloyd, PJ, Jolliffe, D, Timmis, O, Finer, S, Iliodromiti, S, Miners, A, Hopkinson, NS, Alam, B, Lloyd-Jones, G, Dietrich, T, Chapple, I, Pfeffer, PE, McCoy, D, Davies, G, Lyons, RA, Griffiths, C, Kee, F, Sheikh, A, Breen, G, Shaheen, SO & Martineau, AR 2022, 'Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)', Thorax, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 900-912. https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk factors for developing COVID-19

T2 - a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

AU - Holt, Hayley

AU - Talaei, Mohammad

AU - Greenig, Matthew

AU - Zenner, Dominik

AU - Symons, Jane

AU - Relton, Clare

AU - Young, Katherine S.

AU - Davies, Molly R.

AU - Thompson, Katherine N.

AU - Ashman, Jed

AU - Rajpoot, Sultan Saeed

AU - Kayyale, Ahmed Ali

AU - El Rifai, Sarah

AU - Lloyd, Philippa J.

AU - Jolliffe, David

AU - Timmis, Olivia

AU - Finer, Sarah

AU - Iliodromiti, Stamatina

AU - Miners, Alec

AU - Hopkinson, Nicholas S.

AU - Alam, Bodrul

AU - Lloyd-Jones, Graham

AU - Dietrich, Thomas

AU - Chapple, Iain

AU - Pfeffer, Paul E.

AU - McCoy, David

AU - Davies, Gwyneth

AU - Lyons, Ronan A.

AU - Griffiths, Christopher

AU - Kee, Frank

AU - Sheikh, Aziz

AU - Breen, Gerome

AU - Shaheen, Seif O.

AU - Martineau, Adrian R.

PY - 2022/9/1

Y1 - 2022/9/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. METHODS: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. RESULTS: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. CONCLUSIONS: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).

AB - BACKGROUND: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. METHODS: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. RESULTS: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. CONCLUSIONS: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).

KW - allergic lung disease

KW - asthma epidemiology

KW - clinical epidemiology

KW - COVID-19

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85136909679&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

DO - 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

M3 - Article

C2 - 34848555

AN - SCOPUS:85136909679

SN - 0040-6376

VL - 77

SP - 900

EP - 912

JO - Thorax

JF - Thorax

IS - 9

ER -

Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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