Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations

Michael Kwan; Richard Overill; Kam-Pui Chow; Hayson Tse; Frank Law; Pierre Lai

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18

Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations

Michael Kwan, Richard Overill, Kam-Pui Chow, Hayson Tse, Frank Law, Pierre Lai

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Research on using Bayesian networks to enhance digital forensic investigations has yet to evaluate the quality of the output of a Bayesian network. The evaluation can be performed by assessing the sensitivity of the posterior output of a forensic hypothesis to the input likelihood values of the digital evidence. This paper applies Bayesian sensitivity analysis techniques to a Bayesian network model for the well-known Yahoo! case. The analysis demonstrates that the conclusions drawn from Bayesian network models are statistically reliable and stable for small changes in evidence likelihood values.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Digital Forensics VII
Subtitle of host publication	7th IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics, Orlando, FL, USA, January 31 – February 2, 2011, Revised Selected Papers
Editors	Gilbert Peterson, Sujeet Shenoi
Publisher	Springer
Pages	231-243
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-642-24212-0
ISBN (Print)	978-3-642-24211-3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18
Publication status	Published - 2011

Publication series

Name	IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Volume	361
ISSN (Print)	1868-4238
ISSN (Electronic)	1868-422X

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10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18

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Kwan, M., Overill, R., Chow, K.-P., Tse, H., Law, F., & Lai, P. (2011). Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations. In G. Peterson, & S. Shenoi (Eds.), Advances in Digital Forensics VII: 7th IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics, Orlando, FL, USA, January 31 – February 2, 2011, Revised Selected Papers (pp. 231-243). (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology; Vol. 361). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18

Kwan, Michael ; Overill, Richard ; Chow, Kam-Pui et al. / Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations. Advances in Digital Forensics VII: 7th IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics, Orlando, FL, USA, January 31 – February 2, 2011, Revised Selected Papers. editor / Gilbert Peterson ; Sujeet Shenoi. Springer, 2011. pp. 231-243 (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology).

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title = "Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations",

abstract = "Research on using Bayesian networks to enhance digital forensic investigations has yet to evaluate the quality of the output of a Bayesian network. The evaluation can be performed by assessing the sensitivity of the posterior output of a forensic hypothesis to the input likelihood values of the digital evidence. This paper applies Bayesian sensitivity analysis techniques to a Bayesian network model for the well-known Yahoo! case. The analysis demonstrates that the conclusions drawn from Bayesian network models are statistically reliable and stable for small changes in evidence likelihood values.",

author = "Michael Kwan and Richard Overill and Kam-Pui Chow and Hayson Tse and Frank Law and Pierre Lai",

year = "2011",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18",

language = "English",

isbn = "978-3-642-24211-3",

series = "IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology",

publisher = "Springer",

pages = "231--243",

editor = "Peterson, {Gilbert } and Shenoi, {Sujeet }",

booktitle = "Advances in Digital Forensics VII",

}

Kwan, M, Overill, R, Chow, K-P, Tse, H, Law, F & Lai, P 2011, Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations. in G Peterson & S Shenoi (eds), Advances in Digital Forensics VII: 7th IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics, Orlando, FL, USA, January 31 – February 2, 2011, Revised Selected Papers. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol. 361, Springer, pp. 231-243. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18

Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations. / Kwan, Michael; Overill, Richard; Chow, Kam-Pui et al.
Advances in Digital Forensics VII: 7th IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics, Orlando, FL, USA, January 31 – February 2, 2011, Revised Selected Papers. ed. / Gilbert Peterson; Sujeet Shenoi. Springer, 2011. p. 231-243 (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology; Vol. 361).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper

TY - CHAP

T1 - Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations

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AU - Overill, Richard

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AU - Tse, Hayson

AU - Law, Frank

AU - Lai, Pierre

PY - 2011

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AB - Research on using Bayesian networks to enhance digital forensic investigations has yet to evaluate the quality of the output of a Bayesian network. The evaluation can be performed by assessing the sensitivity of the posterior output of a forensic hypothesis to the input likelihood values of the digital evidence. This paper applies Bayesian sensitivity analysis techniques to a Bayesian network model for the well-known Yahoo! case. The analysis demonstrates that the conclusions drawn from Bayesian network models are statistically reliable and stable for small changes in evidence likelihood values.

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DO - 10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18

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SN - 978-3-642-24211-3

T3 - IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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EP - 243

BT - Advances in Digital Forensics VII

A2 - Peterson, Gilbert

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PB - Springer

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Kwan M, Overill R, Chow KP, Tse H, Law F, Lai P. Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations. In Peterson G, Shenoi S, editors, Advances in Digital Forensics VII: 7th IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics, Orlando, FL, USA, January 31 – February 2, 2011, Revised Selected Papers. Springer. 2011. p. 231-243. (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology). doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-24212-0_18

Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Networks Used in Forensic Investigations

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