The effect of heavy smoking on retirement risk: A mendelian randomisation analysis

TY - JOUR

T1 - The effect of heavy smoking on retirement risk

T2 - A mendelian randomisation analysis

AU - Gaggero, Alessio

AU - Ajnakina, Olesya

AU - Zucchelli, Eugenio

AU - Hackett, Ruth A.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors

PY - 2024/10

Y1 - 2024/10

N2 - Background and aims: The extent to which heavy smoking and retirement risk are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employed a novel approach by exploiting the genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), in a Mendelian Randomisation approach. Methods: 8164 participants (mean age 68.86 years) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing had complete data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. A time-to-event Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis, using a complementary log–log (cloglog) link function, was employed to model the retirement risk. Results: Our results show that being a heavy smoker significantly increases the risk of retirement (β = 1.324, standard error = 0.622, p < 0.05). Results were robust to a battery of checks and a placebo analysis considering the never-smokers. Conclusions: Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to earlier retirement.

AB - Background and aims: The extent to which heavy smoking and retirement risk are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employed a novel approach by exploiting the genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), in a Mendelian Randomisation approach. Methods: 8164 participants (mean age 68.86 years) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing had complete data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. A time-to-event Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis, using a complementary log–log (cloglog) link function, was employed to model the retirement risk. Results: Our results show that being a heavy smoker significantly increases the risk of retirement (β = 1.324, standard error = 0.622, p < 0.05). Results were robust to a battery of checks and a placebo analysis considering the never-smokers. Conclusions: Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to earlier retirement.

KW - Mendelian Randomisation

KW - Polygenic Risk Scores

KW - Retirement risk

KW - Smoking

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85196185123&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.addbeh.2024.108078

DO - 10.1016/j.addbeh.2024.108078

M3 - Article

C2 - 38889551

AN - SCOPUS:85196185123

SN - 0306-4603

VL - 157

JO - Addictive Behaviors

JF - Addictive Behaviors

M1 - 108078

ER -