The Impact of Iranian Activity on U.K. National Interests

TY - CHAP

T1 - The Impact of Iranian Activity on U.K. National Interests

AU - Roberts, David

PY - 2024/11/5

Y1 - 2024/11/5

N2 - The Persian Gulf region has witnessed a major conflict every decade for the past century, stemming from deep-rooted structural dynamics. Iran, a key player in the region, finds itself grappling with internal challenges and external threats, leading it to adopt asymmetric strategies to maintain its influence. The UK, with significant interests in the Gulf, must navigate this complex landscape to safeguard its interests and promote regional stability. This paper examines the UK’s position in the Persian Gulf through the DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic) framework. The analysis reveals that the UK’s ability to directly influence Iranian actions is limited, often because mal-coordinated UK policies undercut the very tools it would leverage against Iran. Consequently, the most effective strategy would be to, first, audit its own ends, ways and means so as not to shoot itself in the foot any further. Then, the UK could endeavour to coordinate and unify the efforts of its allies and partners. To do this, the paper proposes the establishment of a cross-government Iran Task Force to harmonise the UK’s approach, and leverage its international standing to convene partners and launch joint initiatives. Specific policies herein could include intelligence sharing, sanctions optimisation and public diplomacy efforts, such as establishing a revamped ‘International World Service’ to provide alternative narratives to Iranian state media. Given rising regional tensions, not least spurred on by the escalating kinetic conflict between Iran and Israel, the international community’s receptiveness to new initiatives concerning limiting Iranian power and aggression is liable to be greater than usual. The UK should seek to harness this moment to lead.

AB - The Persian Gulf region has witnessed a major conflict every decade for the past century, stemming from deep-rooted structural dynamics. Iran, a key player in the region, finds itself grappling with internal challenges and external threats, leading it to adopt asymmetric strategies to maintain its influence. The UK, with significant interests in the Gulf, must navigate this complex landscape to safeguard its interests and promote regional stability. This paper examines the UK’s position in the Persian Gulf through the DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic) framework. The analysis reveals that the UK’s ability to directly influence Iranian actions is limited, often because mal-coordinated UK policies undercut the very tools it would leverage against Iran. Consequently, the most effective strategy would be to, first, audit its own ends, ways and means so as not to shoot itself in the foot any further. Then, the UK could endeavour to coordinate and unify the efforts of its allies and partners. To do this, the paper proposes the establishment of a cross-government Iran Task Force to harmonise the UK’s approach, and leverage its international standing to convene partners and launch joint initiatives. Specific policies herein could include intelligence sharing, sanctions optimisation and public diplomacy efforts, such as establishing a revamped ‘International World Service’ to provide alternative narratives to Iranian state media. Given rising regional tensions, not least spurred on by the escalating kinetic conflict between Iran and Israel, the international community’s receptiveness to new initiatives concerning limiting Iranian power and aggression is liable to be greater than usual. The UK should seek to harness this moment to lead.

M3 - Chapter

BT - RAND

ER -