TY - JOUR
T1 - The long-term effects of cash transfer programmes on young adults’ mental health
T2 - a quasi-experimental study of Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa
AU - Zimmerman, Annie
AU - Avendano, Mauricio
AU - Lund, Crick
AU - Araya, Ricardo
AU - Diaz, Yadira
AU - Sanchez-Ariza, Juliana
AU - Hessel, Philipp
AU - Garman, Emily
AU - Evans-Lacko, Sara
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
PY - 2025/3/1
Y1 - 2025/3/1
N2 - Poverty is associated with poorer mental health in early adulthood. Cash transfers (CTs) have been shown to improve child health and education outcomes, but it is unclear whether these effects may translate into better mental health outcomes as children reach young adulthood. Using a quasi-experimental approach that exploits variation across countries in the timing of national CT programme introduction, we examine whether longer exposure to CTs during childhood (0–17 years) reduces depressive symptoms in early adulthood (18–30 years). Based on harmonized data from Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa (N = 14 431), we applied logistic regression models with country and birth-cohort fixed effects to estimate the impact of cumulative years of CT exposure on mental health, educational attainment, and employment outcomes. Our findings indicate that each additional year of CT exposure during childhood is associated with a 4% reduction in the odds of serious depressive symptoms in early adulthood [odds ratio (OR) = 0.96, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.93, 0.98]. We find no consistent effect of years of exposure on completion of secondary school (OR = 1.01, 95% CIs: 0.99, 1.03) and a negative effect on the probability of employment in early adulthood (OR = 0.90, 95% CIs: 0.88, 0.91). These results suggest that longer exposure to CTs may contribute to modest but meaningful reductions in population-level depressive symptoms during early adulthood.
AB - Poverty is associated with poorer mental health in early adulthood. Cash transfers (CTs) have been shown to improve child health and education outcomes, but it is unclear whether these effects may translate into better mental health outcomes as children reach young adulthood. Using a quasi-experimental approach that exploits variation across countries in the timing of national CT programme introduction, we examine whether longer exposure to CTs during childhood (0–17 years) reduces depressive symptoms in early adulthood (18–30 years). Based on harmonized data from Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa (N = 14 431), we applied logistic regression models with country and birth-cohort fixed effects to estimate the impact of cumulative years of CT exposure on mental health, educational attainment, and employment outcomes. Our findings indicate that each additional year of CT exposure during childhood is associated with a 4% reduction in the odds of serious depressive symptoms in early adulthood [odds ratio (OR) = 0.96, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.93, 0.98]. We find no consistent effect of years of exposure on completion of secondary school (OR = 1.01, 95% CIs: 0.99, 1.03) and a negative effect on the probability of employment in early adulthood (OR = 0.90, 95% CIs: 0.88, 0.91). These results suggest that longer exposure to CTs may contribute to modest but meaningful reductions in population-level depressive symptoms during early adulthood.
KW - cash transfer programme
KW - global mental health
KW - low- and middle-income countries
KW - poverty
KW - quasi-experimental
KW - social policy
KW - youth mental health
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85217509591&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/heapol/czae102
DO - 10.1093/heapol/czae102
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85217509591
SN - 0268-1080
VL - 40
SP - 206
EP - 217
JO - Health policy and planning
JF - Health policy and planning
IS - 2
ER -
