Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments

TY - JOUR

T1 - Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments

AU - Sieg, Tobias

AU - Kienzler, Sarah

AU - Rözer, Viktor

AU - Vogel, Kristin

AU - Rust, Henning

AU - Bronstert, Axel

AU - Kreibich, Heidi

AU - Merz, Bruno

AU - Thieken, Annegret H

N1 - Funding Information: The research presented in this article was mainly conducted within the research training group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange) funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; GRK2043/1 and GRK2043/2). Further case studies were developed within the project “EVUS—Real‐Time Prediction of Pluvial Floods and Induced Water Contamination in Urban Areas”(funded by BMBF, 03G0846) and within the government agency network “Climate change and adaptation” (funded by the Federal Environment Agency, 3715‐48‐1030). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management published by Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2023/9

Y1 - 2023/9

N2 - Flood risk assessments require different disciplines to understand and model the underlying components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Many methods and data sets have been refined considerably to cover more details of spatial, temporal, or process information. We compile case studies indicating that refined methods and data have a considerable effect on the overall assessment of flood risk. But are these improvements worth the effort? The adequate level of detail is typically unknown and prioritization of improvements in a specific component is hampered by the lack of an overarching view on flood risk. Consequently, creating the dilemma of potentially being too greedy or too wasteful with the resources available for a risk assessment. A “sweet spot” between those two would use methods and data sets that cover all relevant known processes without using resources inefficiently. We provide three key questions as a qualitative guidance toward this “sweet spot.” For quantitative decision support, more overarching case studies in various contexts are needed to reveal the sensitivity of the overall flood risk to individual components. This could also support the anticipation of unforeseen events like the flood event in Germany and Belgium in 2021 and increase the reliability of flood risk assessments.

AB - Flood risk assessments require different disciplines to understand and model the underlying components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Many methods and data sets have been refined considerably to cover more details of spatial, temporal, or process information. We compile case studies indicating that refined methods and data have a considerable effect on the overall assessment of flood risk. But are these improvements worth the effort? The adequate level of detail is typically unknown and prioritization of improvements in a specific component is hampered by the lack of an overarching view on flood risk. Consequently, creating the dilemma of potentially being too greedy or too wasteful with the resources available for a risk assessment. A “sweet spot” between those two would use methods and data sets that cover all relevant known processes without using resources inefficiently. We provide three key questions as a qualitative guidance toward this “sweet spot.” For quantitative decision support, more overarching case studies in various contexts are needed to reveal the sensitivity of the overall flood risk to individual components. This could also support the anticipation of unforeseen events like the flood event in Germany and Belgium in 2021 and increase the reliability of flood risk assessments.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85156219799&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/jfr3.12889

DO - 10.1111/jfr3.12889

M3 - Article

SN - 1753-318X

VL - 16

JO - Journal Of Flood Risk Management

JF - Journal Of Flood Risk Management

IS - 3

M1 - e12889

ER -