Uncertainty Bounds for Digital Forensic Evidence and Hypotheses

Richard Overill; Jantje Silomon

doi:10.1109/ARES.2012.17

Uncertainty Bounds for Digital Forensic Evidence and Hypotheses

Richard Overill, Jantje Silomon

Informatics

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

1 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

It is important to be able to quantify the numerical uncertainty associated with the likelihood of a particular hypothesis. The estimation of typical values required in the calculation of posterior odds using the previously proposed operational complexity model (OCM) is a case in point. It is often is necessary to distinguish between alternative explanations for forensically recovered digital evidential traces. In this study, the uncertainties associated with five common e-crimes and their respective Trojan horse defences have been computed using the OCM. They exhibit some remarkable variations and we discuss the significance of the uncertainties in these posterior odds from both a technical and a judicial standpoint. We conclude that these uncertainties are crucial for the defence and prosecution sides to fully understand each others' cases.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Seventh International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (ARES), 2012; 5th International Workshop on Digital Forensics (WSDF 2012), Prague, Czech Republic.
Publisher	IEEE
Pages	590-595
Number of pages	6
ISBN (Print)	9781467322447
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/ARES.2012.17
Publication status	Published - 20 Aug 2012

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Uncertainty Bounds for Digital Forensic Evidence and Hypotheses. / Overill, Richard ; Silomon, Jantje.
Seventh International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (ARES), 2012; 5th International Workshop on Digital Forensics (WSDF 2012), Prague, Czech Republic.. IEEE, 2012. p. 590-595.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper › peer-review

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AU - Silomon, Jantje

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AB - It is important to be able to quantify the numerical uncertainty associated with the likelihood of a particular hypothesis. The estimation of typical values required in the calculation of posterior odds using the previously proposed operational complexity model (OCM) is a case in point. It is often is necessary to distinguish between alternative explanations for forensically recovered digital evidential traces. In this study, the uncertainties associated with five common e-crimes and their respective Trojan horse defences have been computed using the OCM. They exhibit some remarkable variations and we discuss the significance of the uncertainties in these posterior odds from both a technical and a judicial standpoint. We conclude that these uncertainties are crucial for the defence and prosecution sides to fully understand each others' cases.

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DO - 10.1109/ARES.2012.17

M3 - Conference paper

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ER -

Uncertainty Bounds for Digital Forensic Evidence and Hypotheses

Abstract

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