Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Joern Birkmann; Ali Jamshed; Joanna M. McMillan; Daniel Feldmeyer; Edmond Totin; William Solecki; Zelina Zaiton Ibrahim; Debra Roberts; Rachel Bezner Kerr; Hans Otto Poertner; Mark Pelling; Riyanti Djalante; Matthias Garschagen; Walter Leal Filho; Debarati Guha-Sapir; Andrés Alegría

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065

Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Joern Birkmann^*, Ali Jamshed, Joanna M. McMillan, Daniel Feldmeyer, Edmond Totin, William Solecki, Zelina Zaiton Ibrahim, Debra Roberts, Rachel Bezner Kerr, Hans Otto Poertner, Mark Pelling, Riyanti Djalante, Matthias Garschagen, Walter Leal Filho, Debarati Guha-Sapir, Andrés Alegría

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

45 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

Original language	English
Article number	150065
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	803
Early online date	1 Sept 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065
Publication status	Published - 10 Jan 2022

Keywords

Climate change
Natural hazards
Societal impacts
Validity and applicability of indicators
Vulnerability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Birkmann, J., Jamshed, A., McMillan, J. M., Feldmeyer, D., Totin, E., Solecki, W., Ibrahim, Z. Z., Roberts, D., Kerr, R. B., Poertner, H. O., Pelling, M., Djalante, R., Garschagen, M., Leal Filho, W., Guha-Sapir, D., & Alegría, A. (2022). Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning. Science of the Total Environment, 803, [150065]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065

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title = "Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning",

abstract = "Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.",

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author = "Joern Birkmann and Ali Jamshed and McMillan, {Joanna M.} and Daniel Feldmeyer and Edmond Totin and William Solecki and Ibrahim, {Zelina Zaiton} and Debra Roberts and Kerr, {Rachel Bezner} and Poertner, {Hans Otto} and Mark Pelling and Riyanti Djalante and Matthias Garschagen and {Leal Filho}, Walter and Debarati Guha-Sapir and Andr{\'e}s Alegr{\'i}a",

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Birkmann, J, Jamshed, A, McMillan, JM, Feldmeyer, D, Totin, E, Solecki, W, Ibrahim, ZZ, Roberts, D, Kerr, RB, Poertner, HO, Pelling, M, Djalante, R, Garschagen, M, Leal Filho, W, Guha-Sapir, D & Alegría, A 2022, 'Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 803, 150065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065

TY - JOUR

T1 - Understanding human vulnerability to climate change

T2 - A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

AU - Birkmann, Joern

AU - Jamshed, Ali

AU - McMillan, Joanna M.

AU - Feldmeyer, Daniel

AU - Totin, Edmond

AU - Solecki, William

AU - Ibrahim, Zelina Zaiton

AU - Roberts, Debra

AU - Kerr, Rachel Bezner

AU - Poertner, Hans Otto

AU - Pelling, Mark

AU - Djalante, Riyanti

AU - Garschagen, Matthias

AU - Leal Filho, Walter

AU - Guha-Sapir, Debarati

AU - Alegría, Andrés

PY - 2022/1/10

Y1 - 2022/1/10

N2 - Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

AB - Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

KW - Climate change

KW - Natural hazards

KW - Societal impacts

KW - Validity and applicability of indicators

KW - Vulnerability

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JO - Science of the Total Environment

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M1 - 150065

ER -

Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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