Abstract
This research project investigates the financial and economic impacts of social and geopolitics events.The first two chapters focus on the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis on the labour market. Chapter 1 investigated how the exhaustion of unemployment insurance (U.I.) benefits affected employment flows in the United States during the 2008-2011 financial crisis and its aftermath. This chapter not only revealed a positive relationship between the U.I. benefits exhaustion and unemployment reduction but also highlighted the importance of integrating behavioural theories to better understand the intricate dynamics of employment transition. Inspired by Chapter 1, Chapter 2 studied how demographic characteristics affected the employability of ethnic minorities in the United Kingdom. By using both Probit Analysis and Propensity Score Matching, Chapter 2 validated a causal effect of post-school training ( job-related or self-initiated) on reducing unemployment probability and labour force withdrawals.
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit became one of the significant events that asserted profound effects on the labour market, politics, and economy across Europe, serving as the motivation for Chapter 4 and Chapter 5. Chapter 4 investigated the impacts of the E.U. referendum campaign and Brexit uncertainty on the GBP exchange rate based on a comprehensive literature review. Leveraging the theoretical framework established in Chapter 4, Chapter 5 created an equal-weighted non-hedged currency portfolio to simulate the Pound exchange rate and then investigated how macroeconomic factors affected the Pound value across different stages of Brexit.
Amidst the prolonged Brexit negotiations that dragged both the U.K. and Europe into turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated this situation. This event highlights the important role of public health in affecting the sustainability and resilience of financial markets, which motivated Chapter 6. Chapter 6 investigated the Time-varying characteristics of the stock market co-movement between UK and EU stock benchmarks across different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The statistical evidence of this chapter suggested that the nationwide lockdown could efficiently reduce the spillover of Brexit-related coexceedances across the European financial markets.
| Date of Award | 1 Jun 2024 |
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| Original language | English |
| Awarding Institution |
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| Supervisor | Leone Leonida (Supervisor) & George Kapetanios (Supervisor) |