Abstract
This thesis aims to better understand alliance cohesion in deterrence amid transformative shifts in the external threat allies face. Specifically, it examines how the security challenge posed by North Korea (NK), evolving from a conventional and local threat to a nuclear and global one, influenced cohesion within the Republic of Korea (ROK)–United States (US) Alliance from 2010 through 2019.While the increasing North Korean threat sustained operational cooperation, it led to variable strategic cohesion—alignment in preferences for the role and practice of deterrence. This thesis differentiates between cooperation and cohesion, positing differences in perceived escalation risks—temporal, spatial, and ally/alliance-triggered—as a mediating variable causing intra-alliance discord amid persistent collaboration. Feedback loops, rooted in past crises, reveal how discord in immediate deterrence can extend to influence alliance strategies in general deterrence. At the same time, this thesis emphasizes the mitigating role of consultation and cooperation, which, while sometimes reflecting discord, facilitated alignment in alliance responses to the evolving threat.
The thesis makes three important contributions. First, it advances understanding of the often-conflated concepts of "cooperation" and "cohesion," showing that operational cooperation can persist despite discord. This distinction is important as strategic cohesion facilitates greater unity of effort in alliance decision-making, capability development, and deterrence operations, while discord constrains alliance efficiency in these areas. Second, it challenges the assumption that rising threats uniformly enhance cohesion, demonstrating how differing perceptions of escalation risks, shaped by threat directionality, produced discord. Third, it provides insight into evolving South Korean thought on deterrence concepts that diverge from standard Western interpretations, underscoring the interplay between discord and cohesion in shaping alliance strategies.
| Date of Award | 1 Feb 2025 |
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| Original language | English |
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| Supervisor | Ramon Pacheco Pardo (Supervisor) & Nicola Leveringhaus (Supervisor) |